Time-to-Survival from COVID-19 Disease and its Associated Factors in Osun State, Nigeria

Introduction: This study focused on estimating the probability of survival and the specific time to survival from COVID-19 among patients who had COVID-19 in Osun state, Nigeria. Also, we examined some factors associated with the time to survival among COVID-19 patients in Osun state, Nigeria. Methods: The retrospective data of 2596 records of COVID-19 patients in Osun state were analysed in this study. The outcome variable was the “COVID-19 treatment outcome (survived=1, dead=0)”. The time date used in the survival analysis was treatment duration (in days). The explanatory variables were demographic characteristics, type of health facility, vaccination status, symptoms, and mode of admission. The descriptive statistics was computed and presented. Kaplan Meier was used to estimate the median time to survival. Bivariate analysis and multivariate analysis were done using the Log-Rank test and Cox regression, respectively. P values were set at P<0.05. Results: The mean age was observed to be 40 (SD=17.51) years, ranging from mostly, 2 months to 98 years old. More (56.1%) of the participants were males. Most (99.5%) of them were Nigerians. Only 1.4% were vaccinated. The survival rate from COVID-19 was 98.1% in Osun State. The median time for survival was 14 (IQR= 14- 16) days. COVID-19 reduces as the number of days for being on treatment increases. Unvaccinated (HR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.43-2.03) and those whose vaccination status was unknown (HR=0.52, 95%CI: 0.37-0.74) were less likely to survive COVID-19 diseases. Conclusion: The Survival rate was high, the observed median time to survival was 14 days, and the probability of survival reduces as the number of days of being on treatment for COVID-19 increases. Also, gender, vaccination, type of care, and ethnicity were associated with survival time. Similarly, unvaccinated and inpatients were less likely to rapidly survive COVID-19. This study recommends that the COVID-19 vaccine should be encouraged among patients who have the COVID-19 virus. Also, home care may be further explored to assess its effectiveness in caring for COVID-19 patients. In the same vein, COVID-19 data capturing, and databases need strengthening in Nigeria.