Skip to content
2000
  1. Home
  2. A-Z Publications
  3. Current Diabetes Reviews
  4. Volume 21, Issue 1
  5. Article
Volume 21, Issue 1
  • ISSN: 1573-3998
  • E-ISSN: 1875-6417

Abstract

Introduction

Future demographic changes will increase the number of people living with non-communicable diseases. We projected the number of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2035 and 2050 at the global and country levels.

Methods

We pooled T2DM prevalence estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and population estimates from the United Nations for 188 countries. We computed the absolute number of people with T2DM in 2020 and predicted the future number in 2035 and 2050 under four scenarios for the T2DM prevalence: 1) It held constant, 2) It increased by 50%, 3) It decreased by 10%, and 4) It followed 1990-2019 country-specific past trends.

Results

The global number of people with T2DM was 445 million in 2020, and it is projected to increase in 2050 to 730 million if prevalence remains unchanged, 1,095 million if prevalence increases by 50%, 657 million if prevalence decreases by 10%, and 1,153 million if prevalence follows country-specific 1990-2019 past trends. Under all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa and low-income countries had the highest relative increase in the number of people with T2DM. The share of people with T2DM aged <60 years is expected to drop from 5 out of 10 in 2020 to 4 out of 10 people in 2050 under all scenarios.

Conclusions

There will be a massive growth in the number of people living with T2DM, and low-income countries and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be the most affected. Health systems must be strengthened to ensure optimal care for the future population with T2DM.

© 2025 Bentham Science Publishers
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/cdr/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
2024-01-12
2025-05-23

  • From This Site

    /content/journals/cdr/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
    dcterms_title,dcterms_subject,pub_keyword
    -contentType:Contributor -contentType:Concept -contentType:Institution
    10
    5
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. VosT. LimS.S. AbbafatiC. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Lancet2020396102581204122210.1016/S0140‑6736(20)30925‑9 33069326
     [Google Scholar]
  2. Global burden of diseases. gbd results tool | GHDxAvailable from: http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool
  3. ZhouB. LuY. HajifathalianK. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants.Lancet2016387100271513153010.1016/S0140‑6736(16)00618‑8 27061677
     [Google Scholar]
  4. World health organizationfirst-ever global coverage targets for diabetes adopted at the 75th world health assembly.Available from: https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/first-ever-global-coverage-targets-for-diabetes-adopted-at-the-75-th-world-health-assembly (Accessed on 2023 Jun 11).
  5. United NationsGoal 3 | Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.Available from: https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal3 (Accessed on 2022 Feb 6).
  6. SaeediP. PetersohnI. SalpeaP. Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition.Diabetes Res Clin Pract201915710784310.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843 31518657
     [Google Scholar]
  7. FloodD. SeiglieJ.A. DunnM. The state of diabetes treatment coverage in 55 low-income and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data in 680 102 adults.Lancet Healthy Longev.202126e340e35110.1016/S2666‑7568(21)00089‑1 35211689
     [Google Scholar]
  8. WadeA.N. MaposaI. AgongoG. Diabetes care cascade and associated factors in 10 700 middle-aged adults in four sub-Saharan African countries: a cross-sectional study.BMJ Open2023134e06919310.1136/bmjopen‑2022‑069193 37105688
     [Google Scholar]
  9. United nationsworld population prospects - population division - united nations.Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ (Accessed on 2023 Jun 12).
  10. International diabetes federation. idf diabetes atlas2021Available from: https://diabetesatlas.org/atlas/tenth-edition/ (Accessed on 2023 Jun 6).
  11. SudharsananN. GeldsetzerP. Impact of coming demographic changes on the number of adults in need of care for hypertension in brazil, china, india, indonesia, mexico, and south africa.Hypertension201973477077610.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.118.12337 30739534
     [Google Scholar]
  12. AhmadO.B. Boschi-PintoC. LopezA.D. MurrayC.J. LozanoR. InoueM. Age Standardization of Rates: A new WHO Standard2001Available from: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/defaultsource/gho-documents/global-healthestimamates/gpe_discussion_paper_series_paper31_2001_age_standardization_rates.pdf (Accessed on 2023 Jun 6).
     [Google Scholar]
  13. World bankworld bank country and lending groups – world bank data help desk.2022Available from: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups (Accessed on 2022 Apr 30).
  14. World health organization. diabetesAvailable from: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes (Accessed on 2023 Jun 12).
  15. Manne-GoehlerJ. GeldsetzerP. AgoudaviK. Health system performance for people with diabetes in 28 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys.PLoS Med.2019163e100275110.1371/journal.pmed.1002751 30822339
     [Google Scholar]
  16. StowerH. A disease transition in sub-Saharan Africa.Nat. Med.20192511164710.1038/s41591‑019‑0659‑0 31700178
     [Google Scholar]
  17. Pan american health organizationpopulation and individual approaches to the prevention and management of diabetes and obesity.Available from: https://www.knowledge-action-portal.com/en/content/population-and-individual-approaches-prevention-and-management-diabetes-and-obesity (Accessed on 2023 Jun 5).
  18. ZhengY. LeyS.H. HuF.B. Global aetiology and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications.Nat. Rev. Endocrinol.2018142889810.1038/nrendo.2017.151 29219149
     [Google Scholar]
  19. WildS. RoglicG. GreenA. SicreeR. KingH. Global prevalence of diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.Diabetes Care20042751047105310.2337/diacare.27.5.1047 15111519
     [Google Scholar]
  20. KhanM.A.B. HashimM.J. KingJ.K. GovenderR.D. MustafaH. Al KaabiJ. Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes – global burden of disease and forecasted trends.J. Epidemiol. Glob. Health201910110711110.2991/jegh.k.191028.001 32175717
     [Google Scholar]
  21. TeoZ.L. ThamY.C. YuM. Global prevalence of diabetic retinopathy and projection of burden through 2045.Ophthalmology2021128111580159110.1016/j.ophtha.2021.04.027 33940045
     [Google Scholar]
  22. BommerC. SagalovaV. HeesemannE. Global economic burden of diabetes in adults: Projections from 2015 to 2030.Diabetes Care201841596397010.2337/dc17‑1962 29475843
     [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/cdr/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
Loading
Number of People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in 2035 and 2050: A Modelling Study in 188 Countries
Curr. Diabetes Rev. 21, E120124225603 (2025); https://doi.org/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
/content/journals/cdr/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
/content/journals/cdr/10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplements

file format download Download

  • Article Type:     Research Article
Keyword(s): diabetes; Epidemiology; non-communicable diseases; public health; Sub-Saharan Africa; T2DM

Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error
Please enter a valid_number test