Accuracy of Fasting Blood Glucose and Body Mass Index in Predicting Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in China

Background: Research suggests that lowering maternal morbidities associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) can be achieved with earlier risk group identification. Aims: Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine potential markers for identifying first-trimester pregnant women who are at high risk for developing GDM. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. The pertinent maternal clinical data were retrieved prior to 13+6 weeks of gestation, and a binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify potential GDM predictors. The predictive accuracy was evaluated using the area below the receiver operating characteristics curves. Results: In comparison to the control group, the GDM group had significantly higher mean values for age, body mass index (BMI), mean fasting blood glucose (FBG), and hemoglobin (p < 0.05). The Pearson’s correlation coefficients indicated that the first-trimester FBG was significantly positively correlated with the second-trimester FBG. Higher FBG and BMI values were associated with an increased risk of developing GDM (odds ratio (OR) = 3.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-4.55 and OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.12–1.25). In terms of predicting GDM, the FBG parameter demonstrated the greatest area under the curve values (0.66), followed by the BMI parameter (0.69). For GDM prediction, the cut-off value for FBG was 4.32 mM, whereas that for BMI was 23.7 kg/m2. Conclusions: The first-trimester FBG and BMI could be utilized to predict gestational diabetes.